басейн Дністра, бассейн Днестра ; басейни річок, бассейны речек ; гідрологія річок, гидрология рек ; зміни клімату, изменения климата
Розглянуто результати досліджень українських та молдовських вчених щодо впливу кліматичних змін на водні ресурси та гідрологічний режим річок басейну Дністра. Зроблено висновок про те, що більшість дослідників намагається оцінити зміни водних ресурсів Дністра на основі моделей "клімат-стік" з використанням сценаріїв глобального потепління.
Рассмотрены результаты исследований украинских и молдавских ученых относительно влияния климатических изменений на водные ресурсы и гидрологический режим рек бассейна Днестра. Сделан вывод про то, что большинство исследователей стараются оценить изменения водных ресурсов Днестра на основе моделей "климат-сток" с использованием сценариев глобального потепления.
Results of Ukrainian and Moldavian scientist's researches concerning the impact of climatic changes on water resources and the hydrological regime of the rivers in the Dniester basin are considered. It is noted that activation of climate changes researches in the basin is connected with passing of a catastrophic rain flood in 2008. Considerable work in this direction is carried out within a number of the international projects, in particular the project "Transboundary cooperation and sustainable management in the Dniester River basin: Phase III - Implementation of the Action Programme" (Dniester-III) which was carried out during 2009 - 2014. In carrying out the project tasks by Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute experts was made the analysis of climate changes in the Dniester River basin for the period 1991 - 2010 with respect to the period 1961 - 1990 (called "climate norm"), also was made the forecast of such changes on the 2021 - 2050 based on projections of regional climate models. The base period for verification of model calculations and assess the possible climate changes in the basin selected period 1971 - 2000.
Noted project laid the foundation for further actions in the basin for the purpose of adaptation to climate changes. Materials of researches and publications of the project are widely used at present in carrying out the following project "Climate Change and Security in the Dniester River Basin" which began in 2013. And is currently ongoing.
Researches of climatic changes in the Dniester River Basin and their impact on the hydrological regime of the rivers in the basin are conducted also in the territory of Moldova. Most of the Moldavian researchers also try to estimate changes of Dniester water resources based of the models "climate-flow" with use of global warming scenarios. It is noted that in recent years the focus in protection of floods on the Moldavian rivers has shifted to the small rivers where the floods caused by summer heavy rains are observed almost annually (have lesser scale of effects).
In separate researches long-term dynamics of high floods in the Dniester basin for the period of equipment observations is analyzed (from 80th years of the XIX century) and the attention is focused on rather close interrelation between passing of high floods and phases of water content of the river.
